The top Indian news channel had aired the "borrowed prophecy" by saying: "Observing that the Electoral College map is less solid for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton than it was four years ago for outgoing president Barack Obama, a top American pollster today said the former Secretary of State is one state away from potentially losing the Electoral College". Silver chalked up the increased odds to relative order thus far in the returns, which is favorable for Clinton. "That's up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign".
There may be more polling data by tomorrow morning - or not. One way or the other, we have less than 24 hours to wait and see if Nate Silver proves himself right on yet another election prediction. Projections showed OH and Florida as tied after Clinton had enjoyed leads in those states, which have long had tremendous sway over the outcomes of presidential elections with their large number of electors.
As recently as this weekend, FiveThirtyEight had predicted Florida, North Carolina and Nevada as either toss-ups or leaning toward Trump.
The campaign focused on the character of the candidates: Clinton, 69, a former USA secretary of state, and Trump, 70, a NY businessman. It's not easy to sit here and tell you that Clinton has a 98 percent chance of winning. How can Silver be predicting a healthy Clinton victory while also noting she is in danger of losing (and simultaneously making allowance for the possibility she'll win in a landslide)?
Releasing his final forecast, Silver noted that there was a gap between the Electoral College and the national vote, with Ms Clinton 81 per cent likely to get the overall majority of votes in the latter. Clinton's probably a couple of points behind there. He has done that in the general election by looking at errors made in the primaries and by comparing racial makeup of the polls to the area's population, among other things.
Silver said, "We show a three-point lead nationally for Clinton, 2-1 favorite". One shows Clinton winning the total vote by a razor-thin margin of one point.
In fact, it looks as though Trump will win all of them (Michigan hasn't been called yet). Similarly, CCES/YouGov, which also has a respectable "B" rating, called the final tally 43-42, falling in favor of Trump and based off of more than 5,000 voters.
In Michigan, where almost one-third of the vote has been reported, FiveThirtyEight's early projection put Clinton in a solid lead.
Rai said MoglA is a more accurate way to make a prediction of the outcome of an election because it does not "suffer from programmers/developer's biases".