Most of the space station is expected to burn up during re-entry but some debris could make landfall.
As always, they are couching this timeframe.
The re-entry window remains "highly variable", the ESA cautioned.
The possible area of impact will not be outside 43 degrees North or South of the Equator, and although the report states that almost 5.2 billion people live inside the impact area, most of it is the only ocean.
Speaking earlier this week, the director of the Institute of Space Sciences and Astronomy in Malta, Kristian Zarb Adami, said the friction caused by the earth's atmosphere on its re-entry will mean that the satellite will get destroyed.
It's more likely than anything else that most debris will fall into the ocean, which covers 71% of Earth's surface. In fact, you are a million times more likely to win the Powerball. The space station is now on a slowly decaying orbit as its altitude decreases picks up speed as it re-enters Earth's atmosphere.
As for where it will fall, that band of possibility has not narrowed in the last day.
The abandoned craft is expected to make its plunge between the afternoon of Sunday and early Monday morning GMT, the ESA said in a blog post announcing its revised forecast.
'If you imagine the green low risk area on the map is the part of the road we're trying to walk across, the quickest way is to go at 90 degrees - straight across.
Officials in MI have residents on high alert, as the state's Emergency Operations Center has been activated. And there's a slight chance it could land in South Dakota.
The Michigan government has also asked citizens to call 911 and to maintain a safe distance of at least 150 feet (46 meters) if witnessed the debris from the space station. It was launched in September 2011. It hosted two astronauts while in operation but has been empty since 2013.
Since China conducted its first crewed mission in 2003 - becoming only the third country after Russian Federation and the U.S.to do so - it has taken on increasingly ambitious projects, including staging a spacewalk and landing its Jade Rabbit rover on the moon. "By comparison, the risk of being hit by lightning is 1 in 1.4 million, and the risk that someone in the US will be killed in a hurricane is about 1 in six million", the aerospace authority said in a public advisory.
"Our robotic telescopes use advanced technology to virtually track any fast-moving object and this was close to their upper limits, but they did a superb job", he said.