"I think the market is waking up to the fact that [the increase] is not going to be enough to fill the looming supply gap", Flynn said. On Friday they had risen $2.50 to $75.55 a barrel after OPEC only countries came to their own deal to boost output. U.S. gasoline prices have soared as oil has risen in 2018 and Trump is facing increasing criticism domestically as the November midterm elections loom.
Britain's Barclays bank said OPEC's and Russia's commitments would take "the market from a -0.2 million bpd deficit in H2 2018 to a 0.2 million bpd surplus".
Leaving seasonal supply and demand dynamics aside, it is likely that traders were just too optimistic about OPEC and Russia's meeting last week, possibly expecting Russian Federation to prevail with its proposed 1.5 million bpd increase in total production, although that claim was highly questionable from the start. In consultation with Saudi Arabia a compromise was agreed with partners including Iran whose ability to increase production would be curtailed by the recently imposed U.S. sanctions. "Hope OPEC will increase output substantially".
This would translate into 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) incremental production, which is significantly lower than the initial expectation of 1.5 million bpd.
Iran said it doesn't believe buyers of its oil will get waivers from the USA government that would allow them to continue purchasing cargoes after President Donald Trump's renewal of sanctions. Under this new deal, the group will lower the compliance rate to 100% from July 2018 onwards. Meanwhile, every minister seemed to have his own interpretation of what the hike meant for the market.
Iran's seaborne crude exports fell to about 1.93 million bpd in June from 2.38 mln bpd in May and 2.58 mln bpd in April, based on Thomson Reuters data.
Accordingly, at the bi-annual meeting in Vienna last week, the oil cartel, along with its Non-OPEC allies, chose to increase its output by 600,000 bpd, six months ahead of the expiration of its existing agreement.
The group's output has been below targeted cuts largely because of unplanned disruptions in places such as Venezuela and Angola.
"The family is growing and for us, the more the better".