With Germany getting in behind Sweden's full backs at will and fizzing passes across the box, it looked like a matter of time before they scored, but Toivonen's goal gave Sweden breathing space.
Mexico has six points from six and is looked to be almost a lock to move on as Carlos Vela and Javier Hernandez scored in a 2-1 win over South Korea.
If Sweden and Germany both win - meaning Mexico loses - all three teams will finish group play with six points and goal differential will determine who advances.
The Germans are deadly serious ahead of the Swedish match, knowing a second defeat will effectively send them home at the end of the group stages. Even South Korea after two losses could still advance with a win over Germany and help from Mexico. Loew said he was hopeful Hummels, who has not trained in the past days, would be back in time for the game against South Korea to partner Antonio Ruediger.
The world champions were staring elimination at the first hurdle at a World Cup for the first time since 1930 when Kroos stood over a free-kick with 94 minutes on the clock in Sochi.
"Of course, the first goal (by Sweden) was my fault".
But things were much different Saturday, as the Red Devils scored early and often in a 5-2 win over Tunisia in Russian Federation.
Don't miss a moment of the World Cup! The situation will create a lot of scoreboard watching on Wednesday when Mexico and Sweden play in Yekaterinburg and Germany and South Korea meet in Kazan.
"Whether we knock out Germany is one thing, but we have a chance to qualify and that is extraordinary".
Germany midfielder Toni Kroos scored a dramatic late victor to come from behind and beat Sweden 2-1 on Day 10 of the World Cup after the defending champions were reduced to 10 men.
Prediction: Mexico win again and book a place in the round of 16.
Mexico, which upset defending champion Germany in its opening match, took the lead when Vela converted from the penalty spot in the 26th minute. Still, despite scoring eight goals in their first two games, the Red Devils likely need to beat a stronger opponent before being considered a favorite.
Lukaku moved level with Cristiano Ronaldo as the tournament's top scorer on four goals, but an ankle ligament injury may prevent the Manchester United striker from fighting for the Golden Boot. Tunisia will square off with Panama on Thursday, but could be eliminated by then, should England draw with Panama on Sunday.